Now Daily Analysis
How will the Zimbabwean crisis finally end? It is our job to predict the unthinkable, to treat the death of a dictator as an opportunity for long-suffering Zimbabweans to move forward.
Whatever remains will be stronger. But what happens until then, we wonder. How will the people dismantle Mugabe’s web of intrigue, with so many hangers on and cronies planted everywhere? Will Mugabe’s murderous generals and spies run away like Ian Smith’s defeated Rhodesian army or stay put and fight to the death? We have to create this scenario where everything will fall into place after the death of this despot.
But how will that be, with so many armed hustlers ready to rock the boat and get away with their loot amid the confusion? Will Zimbabwe be turned into a banana republic as many analysts predict, or will something survive amid the chaos?
Women will play an important part in any post-Mugabe scenario. So will children. Just as with the biting western sanctions that brought the economy down and turned the people against the ‘dear leader’, it will be these ‘innocent souls’ that will ask the awkward and embarrassing questions that will force the likes of George Charamba and Jonathan Moyo to search their souls and perhaps give up any vestiges of power they hold before there is too much loss of blood.
As always, the so-called international community will come in with their prescriptions. They will want the remnants of the dictatorship to be treated with dignity and humanity, the same dignity and respect which they spent nearly four decades denying the people of Zimbabwe. Naturally, the transition will be a little rough on the edges like all revolutions. Transfers of power from dictators to democrats are never perfect.
There will likely be loss of life because the people are boiling with anger about the way they have been mistreated by the despot and his cronies. But if properly managed, this could be another bloodless transition from tyranny to democracy, from corruption and mismanagement to clean government, and from national failure to prosperity.
All we need is hope that in his last days on earth, Mugabe will not blow it by committing the sort of atrocities that turned countries like Libya into blood rivers. Such a bloodbath can be avoided if the necessary revolution that is coming to Zimbabwe is not stymied by greedy officials who will want to hold on after the dictator has gone, or Western diplomats who will want the story written in another way to fit neatly into the history books and advance their own national interests.
Mugabe is a goner. His wife Grace Mugabe knows this and so do his closest aides. That is why there is so much friction within the ruling party. Everyone is trying to position themselves to take over.
The failure of all opposition parties that have arisen in Zimbabwe – including the MDC-T – to take power democratically when various opportunities presented themselves means they are now totally irrelevant to the emerging scenario. Any attempt by the West to impose failed politicians like the playboy Morgan Tsvangirai and corrupt, violent money-mongers like Joice Mujuru on the people will be met with resistance, resentment and rage. It will only prolong a conflict that could easily be ended soon on Mugabe’s grave.
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